It is important to identify ways and approaches to the well-known conceptual aspects of system optimization of the hydrocarbons development. The "cornerstones" are three fundamental problems: an objective assessment and prediction of oil recovery - a key indicator of rational use of hydrocarbon reserves and reservoir development; quantitative and qualitative forecast evaluation based on few-parameter mathematical model of technological efficiency of the oil field development; the choice of an optimum variant of reservoir management, including the most effective technologies selection.
The proposed design algorithms allow to objectively evaluation of the quantitative impact of the technological features of hydrocarbons production on the ultimate oil recovery factor. Comparative analysis shows that the estimates of technical efficiency using the displacement characteristics be followed by significant error. The proposed unified method has a high accuracy and reliability in the evaluation of technical efficiency of field operations, especially EOR technologies, has a software support (SAKHMET) (certificate of State registration № 2002611922, 2008).
Thus, based on the use of probabilistic-statistical and heuristic minimax criteria of fuzzy logic we proposed the technique of a choice of an optimum variant of oil field development under information shortage and risks. With all the complexity of decision-making, proposed methodology has features that allow scientifically valid and clearly define the optimal variant of the development project.It should be noted that the relevance and importance of the presented research is determined by several aspects: first, the need of systematization of the decision problems related to rational use of mineral resources, reliable forecasts and increase the oil recovery factor, evaluation of technological efficiency and selection of technologies in the context of the natural deterioration of the structure of hydrocarbon reserves and depletion of productive strata.
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